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15 Mar 2023

When is New Zealand´s GDP and how might it affect NZD/USD

Stats New Zealand will release the further quarter Gross Domestic Product today at 21.45 GMT.

Analysts at ANZ Bank have penciled in a 0.3% QoQ contraction, which is weaker than their previous forecast of +0.3% QoQ, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand February MPS forecast of +0.7% QoQ.

´´A 1.7% QoQ fall in goods-producing industries (led by weaker manufacturing and construction) is expected to offset a modest 0.3% q/q lift in services activity. Given the ongoing noise in the data, we’re not convinced a weak read in Q4 can be considered much more than payback from the whopper 2.0% q/q lift in GDP in Q3,´ the analysts said.

The analysts said that the RBNZ will likely to look through some of the weakness in Q4 if the data print broadly as expected.´´

How might it affect NZD/USD?

NZD/USD is lower on the day while the US Dollar, as measured by the DXY index, is recovering on contagion fears in a slight to safety as markets derisk due to the banking crisis. However, NZ GDP data today will be important, as analysts at ANZ Bank explained. ´´But local factors are being overshadowed by global events and generalised fear in global markets. Keep an open mind, be mindful of sinking risk appetite/safe haven appeal. Things are fluid, but not liquid.´´

There is a downside bias currently that exposes the neckline of the W-formation near 0.6150.

About New Zealand´s GDP

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by New Zealand. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of New Zealand economic activity and health. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish) for the NZD.

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