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22 Jan 2024

EUR/USD posts modest gains under the 1.0900 barrier on the softer US Dollar

  • EUR/USD kicks off the new week on a positive note on the weaker USD. 
  • The chance for a Fed rate cut at the March meeting fell to 49.3%, a slide from 81% just a week ago.
  • The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain the interest rate unchanged at its January meeting. 
  • The ECB rate decision, US GDP (Q4), and US Core PCE data will be in the spotlight this week. 

The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains under the 1.0900 barrier during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The European Central Bank's (ECB) January monetary policy meeting on Thursday will be a closely watched event by traders. At press time, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0897, up 0.03% on the day.  

The markets have become less convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut the interest rate in March after the US economic data last week, including Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment Index showed an improvement in the US economy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds for a cut at the March meeting fell to 49.3%, a slide from 81% just a week ago.

On the other hand, the ECB Governing Council members are cautious about prematurely easing financial conditions. No change is anticipated at its January policy meeting on Thursday. Nonetheless, traders will take more cues from ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech after the meeting whether she confirms the first rate cuts this year. Investors believe the ECB will begin cutting interest rates in spring, as sustained progress towards the 2% inflation target is driven by the implementation of tighter real policy rates.

The ECB monetary policy decision will be announced on Thursday, with no change in policy expected. Also, the US preliminary Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4) will be due on Thursday. On Friday, the Commerce Department will release the December reading on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), a favorite Fed inflation gauge. 

 

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