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25 Jan 2024

Euro bulls may need softer US GDP data more than they need hawkish comments from the ECB – SocGen

What the Euro needs, is not a hawkish ECB as much as a better growth outlook, Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, says.

It is more about growth than what the ECB says

What matters for the Euro now, are expectations about growth, rather than monetary policy.

The correlation between relative rates and EUR/USD was much stronger in H1 2023 than in H2, but the reverse was true of the correlation between EUR/USD and relative growth expectations, which strengthened in H2 and may remain dominant.

US Q4 GDP data are probably more market-moving than anything that’s happening in Europe. Consensus is at 2%, SG at 1.9%.

Jan 25, 2024

EUR/JPY halts a losing streak ahead of ECB policy decision, improves to near 160.80

EUR/JPY snaps its losing streak ahead of the interest rate decision from the European Central Bank (ECB).

Natural Gas traders look forward to the summer for solid returns

Natural Gas (XNG/USD) has sunk to a substantial low earlier this week near $2.10. Meanwhile the course has reversed within the futures markets, with summer expiries trading over $1 higher against the more near-term expiries. This means that for