EUR/USD rebounds as USD drops despite Trump’s tariff fears ease
- EUR/USD finds support below 1.0800 as the US Dollar struggles to extend upside despite easing fears of impending tariffs by the US on April 2.
- Preliminary US S&P Global Services PMI gained significantly in March.
- The ECB is expected to cut interest rates again in April.
EUR/USD finds cushion near 1.0780 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The major currency pair attracts bids as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to gain further despite the narrower-than-feared tariff agenda of United States (US) President Donald Trump and upbeat preliminary S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for March.
US President Trump signaled to reporters at the White House on Monday that not all tariffs will be implemented on April 2. Trump said that some countries could get exempted from additional import duties. Market participants have taken Trump’s comments as positive for risky assets and the US Dollar, expecting that the impact of a limited trade war would be lower globally than initially feared. Trump also reiterated that he will announce tariffs on automobiles, aluminum and pharmaceuticals soon.
On Monday, S&P Global reported that robust services sector activity offset the impact of an unexpected decline in the manufacturing sector and resulted in a sharp increase in the Composite PMI. The Services PMI rose to 54.3, significantly higher than the 51.0 recorded in February. Economists expected a mild increase in the service sector activity to 51.2. The services sector is the backbone of the US economy, given that it accounts for roughly two-thirds of the economy.
Meanwhile, accelerating consumer inflation expectations due to Trump’s trade policies have also strengthened the US Dollar. On Monday, Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic said in an interview with Bloomberg that he expects “only one interest rate cut this year” as he sees a slowdown in the progress in the disinflation trend towards the 2% target, assuming that businesses will bear the burden of tariffs. Collectively, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials see two interest rate cuts this year, as shown by the dot plot in the Summary of Economic Projections of the March policy meeting.
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD bounces back while Euro remains under pressure
- EUR/USD ticks higher even though the Euro (EUR) trades cautiously on expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) could reduce interest rates again in April. The ECB has cut its key borrowing rates six times since June and expects to win the battle against inflation this year.
- Last week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said while testifying before the European Parliament Committee that the inflationary impact of the Trump-led trade war is temporary as the effect would “ease in the medium term” due to “lower economic activity dampening inflationary pressures”.
- Lately, traders have pared ECB dovish bets on expectations that the tariff war between the US and the Eurozone could lead to an increase in inflationary pressures in the old continent for a longer period.
- On the economic front, German IFO Business Climate data for March, an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations, has come in higher at 86.7 from the prior reading of 85.3 but missed estimates of 86.8. The Expectations component – which presents outlook for the next six months – increased to 87.7 from the prior release of 85.6. It also missed the expectations of 87.9. IFO Current Assessment data came in at 85.7, beating estimates of 85.5 and the former reading of 85.0.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD finds buying interest below 1.0800
EUR/USD rebounds from 1.0785 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The major currency pair corrected from the five-month high of 1.0955 last week. However, the long-term outlook of the major currency pair is still bullish as it holds above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0666.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) cools down below 60.00, suggesting that the bullish momentum is over, but the upside bias is intact.
Looking down, the December 6 high of 1.0630 will act as the major support zone for the pair. Conversely, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.