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22 Feb 2013

Forex Flash: Next week's main headlights in FX – Merrill Lynch

Merrill Lynch analysts warn of the impending fiscal cuts that are likely to trip GDP growth: “The full sequester is poised to hit on March 1, and as Ethan Harris notes in this edition, the probable $50bn spending cut over a seven-month period would amount to a 0.5% of GDP shock”, wrote analyst Gustavo Reis, expecting GDP growth of just 1% in 2Q.

In regard to this weekend's election in Italy, the greatest post-election risk is a deteriorated growth outlook rather than the backtracking of recent reforms: “Whoever wins the elections has limited room to evade the new balanced budget rule, but growth prospects may dim further if a “reform-fatigued” coalition triumphs”, said Merrill Lynch analysts.

Crossing over to Japan, all eyes remain on the dovish spirit of the government and speculation about who's going to lead the BoJ: “Whoever takes the job from among the frontrunners is likely to be closely aligned with the administration, and therefore set to strike a notably more dovish tone than current Governor Shirakawa. Looking ahead, the real test comes during the new BoJ’s first policy meeting in early April”, they wrote.
Feb 22, 2013

Forex Flash: Gilts remain in narrow range – RBS

According to Technical Markets Strategist Dmytro Bondar at RBS, “The price of Gilts has dipped to the 114.86 region, but found support at the 123.6% projection from the December-January impulse wave. From the safe havens, Gilts look increasingly less attractive as the overall bias remains for a range of 114.60-116.60 with a possible recovery towards 117.80 if the latter is ruptured. However, this is unlikely to happen in the near-term – for the week, we favor a range trade between 114.60 and 116.60. A break of the 114.58 level triggers a move down towards 114.00 and eventually 113.14. Conversely, an upside break points to recovery towards 117.82.”
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Feb 22, 2013

Forex: EUR/USD sidelined at 1.3160 after Fed officials' speeches

The EUR/USD is trading sidelined to 1.3160 which, according to Windsor Brokers analyst Slobodan Drvenica, could confirm a bearish breakout in case of a break below. The pair is under pressure on US Fed Powell and Rosengren speeches.
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