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19 Apr 2013
Forex Flash: Gold has been the big story of the week - Societe Generale
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale notes that the big story of the week has been the fall in commodity (gold) prices.
However, he notes that Gold prices matter less to the global economy than copper or oil price, but they correlate and there is also a loose link between gold prices and the yield on US TIPS. A poor auction last night has extended a correction in real yields (upwards) and represents a flashing light warning us of dislocations in markets. Taken with what is happening in commodity markets, he feels that it either represents a ‘blip' as a series of positions were unwound, or capitulation by (some of) the inflation-paranoid out there. Either way, he notes that there's high risk that we see further capitulation of some of the more crowded inflation-hedging positions.
However, he notes that Gold prices matter less to the global economy than copper or oil price, but they correlate and there is also a loose link between gold prices and the yield on US TIPS. A poor auction last night has extended a correction in real yields (upwards) and represents a flashing light warning us of dislocations in markets. Taken with what is happening in commodity markets, he feels that it either represents a ‘blip' as a series of positions were unwound, or capitulation by (some of) the inflation-paranoid out there. Either way, he notes that there's high risk that we see further capitulation of some of the more crowded inflation-hedging positions.